The Past, Present, and Future of Fantasy Fiction from 2015 to 2030

This article primarily draws from the top ten fantasy novels on Goodreads for 2015, 2020, and 2025. For the 2026 section, I reference books published up to the present day (July 15, 2026). My projections for 2030 stem entirely from my own industry observations and forecasts.

Important Note: Goodreads did not feature a separate "Romantasy" category in 2015 or 2020; all works competed under the general fantasy umbrella. This separate category only emerged in 2023. Consequently, the 2025 fantasy list is largely stripped of pure romantasy. Therefore, while the darker tone of the 2025 roster partly reflects evolving reader preferences, it is also because the residual fantasy category inherently gravitates toward darker and more literary works after romantasy was siphoned off.

2015 Fantasy Fiction (Total Votes: 197,500)

Neil Gaiman's Trigger Warning (33,681 votes) won the top spot; however, it is a short story collection. The rest of the list paints a more telling picture. V.E. Schwab's A Darker Shade of Magic (30,530 votes) represented an early, powerful spark of portal fantasy, a subgenre where protagonists typically cross from our world into another. Brandon Sanderson's Shadows of Self and Robin Hobb's Fool's Quest stood as quintessential examples of pure epic fantasy.

Ilona Andrews' Magic Shifts, Patricia Briggs' Dead Heat, and Anne Bishop's Vision in Silver formed the structural backbone of the list. All three were strongholds of urban fantasy, heavily featuring shifters and vampires. Jim Butcher's The Aeronaut's Windlass was a particularly intriguing entry. It marked a notable attempt by the Dresden Files author to branch into steampunk. In essence, 2015 was a remarkably "safe" year, dominated by veteran authors continuing their established series, where well-known names reliably secured votes.

2020 Fantasy Fiction (Total Votes: 423,396)

The winner claimed victory by a razor-thin margin. Sarah J. Maas's Crescent City: House of Earth and Blood (95,084 votes) narrowly surpassed V.E. Schwab's The Invisible Life of Addie LaRue by a mere 1,800 votes. In Goodreads' own phrasing, "this year the votes skewed darker and stickier." Since romantasy lacked its own category, the title that claimed the "Fantasy" award was essentially a romantasy itself.

TJ Klune's The House in the Cerulean Sea (45,778 votes) single-handedly propelled the "cozy fantasy" subgenre, characterized by low-stakes magic and everyday life, into the mainstream. Susanna Clarke's Piranesi (19,179 votes), which arrived after a decade-long hiatus following Jonathan Strange & Mr Norrell, successfully revived literary fantasy, a subgenre that prioritizes human nature, philosophy, and character psychology. N.K. Jemisin's The City We Became (29,105 votes), the first installment in the "Great Cities" series, pioneered socio-political urban fantasy. Alix E. Harrow's The Once and Future Witches (22,697 votes) stood as a compelling example of feminist historical witchcraft narratives. Naomi Novik's A Deadly Education (18,109 votes), the opening of the Scholomance series, revitalized the magic school subgenre. The year 2020 presented a diversification explosion that was incomparable to the monochromatic landscape of 2015, likely driven by the pandemic radically reshaping reading habits.

2025 Fantasy Fiction (Total Votes: 521,797)

V.E. Schwab reached the summit with Bury Our Bones in the Midnight Soil (102,408 votes). Briefly described, the novel is a sapphic vampire saga stretching from 16th-century Spain to 1827 London, and finally to the Boston of today. This victory marked Schwab's third GCA award, establishing her as one of the rare authors to win accolades in both YA and adult categories.

R.F. Kuang's Katabasis (87,125 votes) made a massive impact as a dark, satirical fantasy hybrid that transforms academia into a hellscape. Brandon Sanderson's Wind and Truth (50,158 votes) concluded the first cycle of the Stormlight Archive, while James Islington's The Strength of the Few (30,007 votes) provided a powerful continuation of classic epic fantasy in the Hierarchy series. Stephanie Garber's Alchemy of Secrets (47,888 votes), an extension of the Caraval universe, was the entry closest to romantasy, yet it deliberately remained within the "Fantasy" pool, likely to avoid the intense competition elsewhere.

Emilia Hart's The Sirens (32,082 votes) offered a profound narrative focused on sisterhood mythology. Joe Abercrombie's The Devils (27,429 votes) represented a return to grimdark with a cynical heist narrative. Samantha Sotto Yambao's Water Moon (25,469 votes) effectively showcased magical realism. Looking broadly, paranormal romance saw a complete collapse, replaced by massive diversification, followed by romantasy expanding so significantly that it required its own category. What remained in the core fantasy space were gothic tales, dark academia, grimdark, and mythological retellings. Despite this market turbulence, the fantasy genre, buoyed by Sanderson's epic world-building and Schwab's literary gothic narratives, consistently manages to forge its own unshakeable constants.

Fantasy Fiction Today (First Half of 2026)

The first half of 2026 reveals an era of escalating alternate history fantasy and mythological retellings. Readers display clear fatigue with simple templates, gravitating toward either dark hybrid genres or multicultural, original narratives.

   Brandon Sanderson's Isles of the Emberdark: This epic fantasy continues the Sixth of the Dusk novellas, following protagonist Dusk's efforts to shield his people in a perilous region of the Cognitive Realm known as the Emberdark.

   Shannon Chakraborty's The Tapestry of Fate: The second book in the Amina al-Sirafi adventures, this historical mythological fantasy sees the retired pirate queen battling demons in the Indian Ocean to rescue her family.

   Mark Lawrence's Daughter of Crows: Launching the Academy of Kindness trilogy, this grimdark fantasy depicts a girl's struggle to endure a cruel school while fighting the primal beast inside her.

   Shen Tao's The Poet Empress: This epic romantasy hybrid, infused with the essence of ancient China, follows Wei Yin as she enters the palace as a concubine to save her family, learning forbidden poetry magic to survive.

   Ava Reid's Innamorata: Set in a gothic Venice, this standalone necromantic fantasy serves as a parodic revenge narrative that deconstructs classic romantasy tropes like fated mates and forbidden love.

   Jim Butcher's Twelve Months: The eighteenth installment in the Dresden Files, this urban fantasy follows wizard detective Harry Dresden as he processes deep grief and trauma while preparing for his coerced marriage to a vampire noblewoman.

   Ilona Andrews' This Kingdom Will Not Kill Me: In this first book of the Maggie the Undying series, Maggie is transported via portal fantasy into the dark fantasy world she was reading, where she must navigate throne wars and court intrigues.

   Moniquill Blackgoose's To Ride a Rising Storm: The second book in the Nampeshiweisit series, this political fantasy features a young Indigenous woman training at an anti-colonial dragon academy.

   Katherine Arden's The Unicorn Hunter: From the author of the Winternight trilogy, this historical mythological fantasy interweaves the real 15th-century ducal conflicts of Brittany with Celtic mythology and a mythical unicorn hunt in an ancient forest.

   Lee Young-do's The Heart of the Nhaga: The first English translation of Korea's legendary answer to The Lord of the Rings, this epic fantasy centers on the battle for immortality among distinct Eastern races.

   T. Kingfisher's Nine Goblins: A low fantasy featuring nine goblins striving to survive with the help of a grumpy elf veterinarian, presenting a warm and mischievous road-trip tale overshadowed by war.

   Sunyi Dean's The Girl with a Thousand Faces: From the author of The Book Eaters, this gothic fantasy charts the story of Mercy Chan, who converses with ghosts in the Kowloon Walled City during the 1940s and 1970s, confronting her own lost history.

 

What Could Fantasy Fiction Look Like in 2030?

1. The Ascent of Multiculturalism and Localized Mythologies

The default Anglo-Saxon medieval framework is dissolving. The Heart of the Nhaga offers concrete evidence. Digital fiction and publishing revenues are expanding far more rapidly in markets such as India, Brazil, Colombia, and China compared to English-speaking territories. This dynamic will shift the genre's center of gravity geographically, not just thematically, pulling it outward from the West.

2. The Proliferation of Eco-Fantasy

Although this subgenre has yet to claim an independent label, its precursors are already visible. Rebecca Roanhorse's universe, where magic returns after a climate catastrophe, continues to develop, while Moniquill Blackgoose's series foregrounds the intersection of colonialism and nature. Magic will increasingly be portrayed not solely as an instrument of war and obliteration but also as a means to heal the world and reconnect with its ecosystems.

3. The Dominance of Genre Fluidity

The concept of a "pure genre" is weakening, even from a purely marketing standpoint. Books like Katabasis retain traces of romantasy, such as the magnetic pull between academic rivals and forced proximity, yet they rest upon a profoundly weighty, philosophical, and literary skeleton. By 2030, commercial survival for a narrative will likely demand the ability to move fluidly across multiple genre boundaries.

4. Decentralization and the AI Revolution in Production

The deployment of AI tools among independent authors, for purposes such as professional translation, audiobook narration, cover design, and layout, is projected to climb from roughly 45% today to 85% by 2030. I also anticipate a substantial surge in the digital fantasy market, with its expansion already evident. This mirrors the broader shift from physical to digital that permeates every sector. Just as Sony dismantled its reliance on cassettes and discs to embrace cloud and digital distribution, thereby reshaping entertainment, the book industry is now undergoing its own digital metamorphosis.

5. The Advent of Interactive Narratives

With the escalating power of AI, I foresee a marked increase in interactive narratives. The longstanding tradition of passive reading is poised for a fundamental transformation. Fantasy readers will no longer be satisfied with merely tracing the paths outlined by the author; they will demand the agency to steer the protagonist's decisions and directly shape the plot's trajectory. AI will facilitate this by generating infinitely variable digital worlds that respond instantly and organically to each reader's unique choices.

 

My Final Assessment

In essence, the content side is witnessing a surge in genre fluidity and multiculturalism, while the production and distribution side is seeing a rise in decentralization. These two dynamics represent opposite faces of the same transformation: the cumbersome "pure genre and single market" logic enforced by traditional publishers is steadily eroding.

Furthermore, we can anticipate a future that offers far more favorable and expansive conditions for authors to publish their work. A novel penned in Turkish could, through AI, achieve flawless translation into dozens of languages within a single week, securing immediate placement in numerous diverse markets. Of course, this will also escalate global competition to an extreme degree. To ascend and distinguish yourself in this burgeoning ecosystem, you will need to execute the unexecuted and contemplate the unconsidered. For Turkish authors specifically, my advice is to fuse Turkish mythology with various narrative genres. A vast, unoccupied market is currently waiting to be explored.

 

Thank you for your time in reading this far :)